Possible scenario
Controlled Plant Approvals
40% Chance
Trump keeps the 100% tariff wall on imported Chinese vehicles but invites Chinese automakers to manufacture inside the U.S. under strict local-content, data-security, and labor conditions. This is the most likely path because it lets the administration claim job creation while limiting tariff circumvention.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Tickers
- TSLA-2.3%
- GMM.USD-1.8%
- F-1.1%
- STLA-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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