Possible scenario
FTA Normalization Holds
45% Chance
Colombia’s new pro-U.S. government follows through on the diplomatic reset with Israel after leaving the Hague Group and moving its embassy to Jerusalem. The most likely path is a practical restoration of tariff preferences, customs procedures, and business-to-business channels without a major regional crisis.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+1.1%
- CHKP+0.4%
- ICL+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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