Possible scenario
Regional Backlash Broadens
15% Chance
Colombia’s reversal creates friction with left-leaning Latin American governments that had supported a harder line against Israel. The most likely version is rhetorical and diplomatic, but a smaller risk is that regional trade or border issues become linked to the Israel policy shift.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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