Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
18% Chance
Omani and UN channels press the Houthis and Riyadh to avoid further escalation after the latest interceptions. A temporary reduction in attacks is plausible because both sides may want to test leverage without inviting a broader conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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