Possible scenario
Retaliation Cycle Widens
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with intensified airstrikes against Houthi missile and drone launch infrastructure in Yemen. The Houthis attempt further launches, raising near-term geopolitical risk but still stopping short of a sustained regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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