Possible scenario
Orderly Pullback Holds
45% Chance
The National Guard continues to honor the D.C. Board of Elections request and avoids ballot drop boxes, early-vote centers, and polling-place entrances. The Trump administration frames the move as operational discipline rather than a concession, reducing immediate confrontation risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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