Possible scenario
Federal Presence Returns
20% Chance
The administration reintroduces a federal security presence around voting locations through agencies other than the Guard or through revised Guard orders. The move does not immediately halt voting, but it renews legal and political conflict over intimidation and election administration.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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