Possible scenario
Stablecoin Bid Holds
42% Chance
Stablecoin reserve growth continues to absorb part of China's reduced Treasury footprint, especially in bills and short coupons. Markets treat the shift as a manageable change in the buyer base rather than a funding shock.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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