Possible scenario
China Selling Accelerates
20% Chance
Stablecoin demand proves helpful but insufficient if China's official and state-bank Treasury sales accelerate. The market reprices term premium higher as investors question whether private stablecoin reserves can replace sovereign reserve demand.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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