Scenario description
Assume the United States makes new or increased tariff, quota, import-licensing, border-clearance, or other binding import restrictions legally effective or operationally enforced on goods from Mexico after the October 2026 impasse. The measures are tied by U.S. implementation documents or official statements to unresolved U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations, bilateral trade-balance concerns, Mexican tariff or import policy, energy-cooperation demands, autos, steel, aluminum, or related negotiating issues. The exact rates, covered products, thresholds, exemptions, and duration are those officially specified, or unknown where not disclosed.