Scenario description
Assume the United States and Mexico finalize and put into effect a standalone bilateral commercial package after the October 2026 stalemate involving Mexican goods or cross-border commerce. The package creates binding new tariff, customs, market-access, import-treatment, automotive, steel, aluminum, energy, or other commercial obligations between the two countries. The exact covered products, rates, quota volumes, exemptions, energy terms, and implementation schedules are limited to what officials disclose and remain unknown where not specified.