Possible scenario
Maritime Disruption Widens
18% Chance
The immediate military response remains limited, but insurers, port authorities, and navies treat the attacks as proof that Russian-linked drones can disrupt European sea lanes. The market impact concentrates in energy, shipping, travel, and European defense rather than a global systemic selloff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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