Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
25% Chance
The United States and major European governments prioritize crisis management, public attribution, and sanctions preparation over immediate force. This path is plausible because both NATO and Russia have incentives to test boundaries without triggering open war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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