• 

  38%

  0.0%

  Alliana Stabilizes Crisis

  President Pedro Alliana consolidates authority after Santiago Peña is held in a military unit, framing the move as a security measure rather than political retaliation. The Central Bank of Paraguay and prosecutors coordinate a depositor payout plan that reduces protest intensity in Asunción and Ciudad del Este.

  Finance +0.1%

• 

  30%

  −0.3%

  Unrest Remains Contained

  Protests continue after Peña’s transfer to a military facility, but security forces keep them localized around bank branches, Congress, and government buildings. Alliana’s administration survives the immediate challenge, though confidence in financial institutions remains fragile.

  Finance −0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1%

• 

  20%

  −0.2%

  Political Crisis Deepens

  Peña’s removal and detention become a constitutional crisis rather than only a banking crisis. The Colorado Party fractures between pro-Peña lawmakers and Alliana loyalists, delaying fiscal and banking decisions.

  Finance −0.2% · Utilities −0.1%

• 

  12%

  −0.4%

  Banking Contagion Escalates

  The Ueno failure begins to affect confidence in other Paraguayan banks, forcing authorities to consider broader guarantees or emergency liquidity. This is the lowest-probability but highest-impact path because it turns a political crisis into a wider financial-stability event.

  Finance −0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.