Possible scenario
Republican Polling Rebound
18% Chance
Republicans outperform late polls by consolidating undecided Trump voters and offsetting Democratic mail-vote strength with heavier Election Day turnout. The result undercuts the idea of a broad Democratic wave and gives the Pennsylvania GOP a plausible path to slowing or reversing Democratic gains.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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