Possible scenario
Narrow Democratic Edge
26% Chance
The polling lead proves real but smaller than headline numbers imply, with Republicans recovering some Election Day vote and limiting losses. Democrats still hold the Pennsylvania House, but the result is interpreted as a modest rather than decisive anti-Trump signal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.