Possible scenario
Proxy Retaliation Expands
27% Chance
Iran cannot or does not choose to answer with a large conventional strike, but it enables proxies and cyber units to impose costs on U.S. partners. The result is a controlled but dangerous escalation centered on shipping, U.S. bases, and critical infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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