Possible scenario
De-escalation Holds
38% Chance
Hegseth's claim that Iran's military is destroyed is treated by Tehran and regional governments as a signal that the U.S. campaign has reached its intended endpoint. Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries press for a pause while CENTCOM verifies damage to missile, drone, and command sites.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.9%
- Energy -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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