Possible scenario
Truce Talks Revived
15% Chance
The breach leads to renewed diplomatic pressure rather than immediate escalation. The EU keeps the €3B package in place, but the United States, Turkey, and possibly the UN press for a limited energy-infrastructure monitoring arrangement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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