Possible scenario
Energy War Escalates
30% Chance
Russia follows the truce breach with additional attacks on substations, gas storage, and power generation sites before winter. The EU responds with more military aid and sanctions work, creating a modest risk-off move and a bid for defense and energy-exposed assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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