Possible scenario
Plea Deals Dominate
40% Chance
The most likely path is a conventional terrorism-finance prosecution in which several defendants seek plea agreements after arrests, device seizures, and bank-record subpoenas. The $2 million scale is serious for criminal enforcement but not large enough to create broad market or geopolitical spillovers.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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