Possible scenario
Alerts End Calmly
45% Chance
The cleared Civil Defense alerts prove to be the end of the immediate incident, with no confirmed missile or drone impacts in Saudi cities. This is the most likely path because Saudi air defense activity and public warnings often resolve without major damage, especially after intercepts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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