Possible scenario
Energy Or Shipping Escalation
18% Chance
Houthis widen targeting from cities and airports toward oil infrastructure or maritime traffic. This is less likely than contained alerts, but the recent threats to Saudi ships and prior energy infrastructure attacks make it a realistic escalation path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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