From todayCategory 3 Storm Nolo’s 120 mph Winds Target Hawaii’s Big Island

• 

  35%

  0.0%

  Glancing Offshore Blow

  The most likely lower-damage outcome is that Nolo passes close enough to disrupt travel, surf, ports and schools but avoids a direct eyewall landfall. Hawaii still sees heavy rain and outages, but damage is far below a major direct hit.

  Consumer Services −0.5% · Utilities −0.5% · Finance −0.1%

• 

  30%

  −0.1%

  Big Island Landfall

  Nolo reaches Hawaii’s Big Island as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane, producing damaging winds, flooding rain and extended power outages. Emergency managers move faster than in the 2023 Lahaina disaster, but the Big Island still faces airport, road and utility disruptions.

  Utilities −1.2% · Consumer Services −1.1% · Finance −0.5%

• 

  25%

  0.0%

  Track Shifts Away

  Forecasters revise Nolo’s path farther from the islands, or wind shear weakens the cyclone before closest approach. Evacuations and closures are reversed quickly, creating a relief rally in Hawaii-exposed names.

  Consumer Services +0.4% · Utilities +0.4% · Finance +0.1%

• 

  10%

  −0.5%

  Statewide Emergency Deepens

  A lower-probability severe case sees Nolo’s impacts spread beyond the Big Island through prolonged outages, port disruption, flash flooding and a politically sensitive emergency response. The 2023 Lahaina experience magnifies scrutiny of Hawaiian Electric, sirens, evacuation orders and state coordination.

  Utilities −2.5% · Consumer Services −2.4% · Finance −0.9%