Possible scenario
Agency Containment Prevails
25% Chance
DHS and ICE try to keep the controversy contained through internal review, statements, and personnel management rather than public escalation. This is plausible if prosecutors see the recording as troubling but insufficient on its own for a criminal case.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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