Possible scenario
Limited Military Signaling
28% Chance
The dispute produces additional military demonstrations, including launches, artillery drills, electronic harassment, or visible troop movements. The actions remain bounded and geographically limited, but markets price a higher probability of another tactical incident on the peninsula.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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