Possible scenario
Border Incident Escalation
20% Chance
A further mine, drone, or patrol incident turns the dispute from diplomatic accusation into an active border-security crisis. Even if leaders avoid full escalation, renewed casualties would raise the risk premium around South Korean assets and regional travel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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