Possible scenario
Managed Truce Holds
45% Chance
Washington and Beijing implement the non-sensitive-goods deal while keeping AI chips, advanced software, and rare-earth controls outside the package. Markets treat the accord as a credible but limited de-escalation that supports trade-exposed sectors without changing the strategic-technology conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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