Possible scenario
Implementation Frictions Emerge
15% Chance
The deal's language leaves room for disagreement over what counts as non-sensitive goods, how tariff relief is sequenced, and whether software-related products are covered. The initial market response turns cautious as investors price in a higher probability of delays or partial non-compliance.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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