Possible scenario
Recount Fight Follows
20% Chance
The faith controversy keeps the race intensely polarized, and neither candidate builds a decisive lead. A recount or ballot-processing fight delays final certification, especially if the Kansas result appears relevant to national Senate control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.