Possible scenario
Marshall Recovers Ground
31% Chance
Trump and Vance's intervention ultimately consolidates Republican voters who had been wavering after the governor's endorsement of Hamilton. Marshall reframes the contest around party control of the Senate, nationalizing the race enough to overcome Hamilton's early polling advantage.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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