Regional Spillover Risk

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The conflict expands beyond Aden as the Houthis retaliate against Saudi or Red Sea-linked targets. This remains the least likely path, but it would have the clearest short-term macro impact through oil prices, shipping risk, and volatility.

What it moves

Energy+0.8%
Consumer Services−0.6%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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