Limited Aid Corridor

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely outcome is a narrow humanitarian arrangement that allows evacuations and food deliveries without changing the wider battlefield. Both Moscow and Kyiv have incentives to avoid blame for civilian deaths while keeping negotiations confined to Oleshky.

What it moves

Finance+0.4%
Energy−0.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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