Possible scenario
Renewed Drone Campaign
25% Chance
The Houthis attempt to exploit the symbolic value of striking the Saudi capital and conduct additional drone or missile launches. Even if most projectiles are intercepted, repeated alerts keep risk premiums elevated across oil, aviation, and defense-linked assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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