Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Response
40% Chance
Saudi authorities contain the damage at King Khalid International Airport and avoid immediate large-scale retaliation. Riyadh tightens air-defense coverage while using Oman and U.S. channels to warn the Houthis against follow-on attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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