Possible scenario
Symbolic Legal Pressure
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Florida prosecutors advance the indictment largely as a symbolic and legal-pressure campaign, with no realistic prospect of taking Raúl Castro into custody. Havana refuses cooperation, and the case proceeds slowly through service, jurisdictional motions, and public filings.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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