Possible scenario
Cuba Retaliates Diplomatically
20% Chance
Cuba responds more forcefully, framing the prosecution as a violation of sovereignty and retaliating against U.S. diplomatic or travel channels. This outcome would create localized disruption for airlines, migration processing, and family travel, but still fall short of a broad geopolitical crisis.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Tickers
- AAL-1.0%
- JBLU-0.8%
- DAL-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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