Possible scenario
Stagflation Concerns Deepen
20% Chance
The inflation miss lands just after the RBA warned about stagflation, increasing concern that price pressures and slowing activity are overlapping. Investors reduce exposure to banks, retailers and cyclical stocks while credit-risk proxies widen modestly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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