Possible scenario
Inflation Peak Narrative
30% Chance
Markets focus more on the monthly easing in trimmed mean inflation than on the 4% headline miss. Investors conclude that policy is already restrictive enough and that the RBA can pause while assessing lagged effects on households.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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