Possible scenario
Case Stays Narrow
42% Chance
The arrest remains primarily an individual criminal matter rather than proof of a broad voting scheme. DHS, HSI, and the U.S. Attorney's Office use the case to validate database checks, but prosecutors do not immediately link it to organized fraud.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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