Possible scenario
Industrial Base Support
18% Chance
Lawmakers use the Bath Iron Works certification fight as evidence that the destroyer industrial base needs more funding rather than fewer orders. Congress and the Pentagon add workforce, supplier, and capital support to preserve capacity at Bath, Ingalls, and selected naval suppliers.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Tickers
- HII+1.5%
- GD+1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.