Possible scenario
State Security Gains
40% Chance
Washington follows Rubio's statement with a concrete aid package, reinforcing President Joseph Aoun's effort to make the Lebanese Army the sole armed authority. The most likely path is gradual state consolidation rather than an immediate confrontation with Hezbollah.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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