Possible scenario
Hezbollah Tests Ban
25% Chance
Hezbollah probes the limits of the 2026 ban without immediately triggering a full confrontation. The group uses political allies, public messaging, and localized pressure to preserve room for maneuver.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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