Possible scenario
Policy Paralysis Persists
22% Chance
Political constraints prevent meaningful fiscal changes even as the BIS, IMF and national debt offices repeat warnings. Investors conclude that debt ratios will keep rising and that future downturns will meet a weaker fiscal response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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