Possible scenario
Orderly Fiscal Adjustment
38% Chance
Advanced economies treat the BIS warning as reinforcement for medium-term fiscal consolidation rather than an immediate market crisis. The U.S. Treasury, Eurogroup, Japan's Ministry of Finance and IMF emphasize gradual deficit reduction while avoiding abrupt cuts that would damage growth.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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