Possible scenario
Selloff Resumes
25% Chance
The reversal fails and the market refocuses on DeepSeek-related concerns, AI accelerator efficiency and possible over-ordering in high-bandwidth memory. A renewed break below July lows would likely keep selling concentrated in semiconductor and AI-linked hardware shares.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Bitcoin Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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