Possible scenario
Range-Bound Repair
27% Chance
The market stabilizes but does not produce a convincing rebound because investors still need clarity on AI memory demand, HBM4 orders and valuation support. The Kospi trades around the broken July-low area as traders reduce gross exposure rather than aggressively buy the dip.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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