Possible scenario
Border Probing Intensifies
25% Chance
Russia is likely to keep testing NATO’s detection and response thresholds through drones, jamming, and flight-path ambiguity near Poland, the Baltic states, and Belarus. This outcome does not imply open war, but it increases the frequency of air-defense alerts and political pressure for more interceptors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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