Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Sweden’s Patriot deployment strengthens NATO’s eastern air-defense posture without triggering a direct confrontation with Russia. Moscow may protest and continue intelligence gathering, but the mission remains defensive, rules-based, and integrated into NATO command structures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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