Possible scenario
Temporary shipping pause
28% Chance
The two vessel strikes trigger a temporary commercial halt while shipowners, insurers, and Ukrainian authorities assess routes and liability. This would not necessarily close the corridor permanently, but it would pressure grain exports and Black Sea freight conditions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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